A new study co-authored by DPP Professor Martin Kahanec published in Applied Economics finds that patterns of social assistance dependence during Sweden’s severe economic crisis of the 1990s varied sharply by gender, migration background, and household composition, challenging widely held assumptions about who is most at risk of long-term welfare dependency.
The article, “Structural state dependence in Swedish social assistance during the 1990s economic crisis,” by Daniela Andrén, Thomas Andrén, and Martin Kahanec, uses detailed register-based panel data and advanced econometric methods to analyse how past welfare receipt influences future reliance on social assistance.
The study reveals substantial persistence in welfare participation; but crucially, this persistence is highly uneven across groups. One of the most striking findings is that structural state dependence is strongest among Swedish-born single individuals, particularly men, contradicting common narratives that focus primarily on immigrants as the main source of welfare dependency.
“Our results show that welfare persistence is not primarily concentrated among immigrants,” said Kahanec. “Instead, it is shaped by household structure and access to resources and networks, especially through partnership formation.”
The study also underscores the importance of how welfare systems are designed. Because eligibility in Sweden is assessed at the household level, changes in partnership status can mechanically alter eligibility, meaning that observed persistence reflects both behaviour and institutional rules.
“These results suggest that policy debates focusing narrowly on immigrants risk overlooking important high-persistence groups among native populations,” the authors note. “They also highlight the need to consider household structure when designing social policy and integration measures.”
The research builds on a collaboration initiated during Andrén’s research stay at Central European University, which enabled intensive academic exchange and joint work.
The article is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2026.2648789