That was the conclusion of Ricardo Soares de Oliveira during a public lecture at the School of Public Policy at CEU on May 26. Soares de Oliveira, an associate professor at the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, explained that the post-war reconstruction of Angola ended with the collapse of oil prices in 2014 and that "the future is uncertain."
Soares de Oliveira noted that for many years Angola had been a "poster child" for failed states. This all changed, however, with the end of the civil war in 2002. Starting in 2004, Angola embarked on a dramatic period of post-war reconstruction. Its economy grew ten-fold, from $13 billion to $129 billion. During the same ten-year period, the country accumulated more than half a trillion dollars in oil revenues. Soares de Oliveira identified three factors for Angola's successful post-war reconstruction: its outright victory over its opponent (UNITA) in 2002; the spectacular increase in oil revenues; and its "marriage of convenience" with China.
One of the defining features of Angola's reconstruction was its "extraordinary focus" on infrastructure, which the MPLA saw as a way to project its power over the country, and to impose its vision of modernity. It invested in roads and railroads, and also put enormous attention and resources into making the Angolan capital city (Luanda) Africa's Dubai. Soares de Oliveira said that there was broad support or at least tolerance within Angola – even from former UNITA rebels – for this MPLA vision. He said also that the MPLA's "real goal" throughout this period was not broad-based national development, but rather – in the words of Deng Xiaoping – for "some people to get rich first." Angola became, according to Soares de Oliveira, "an oligarch's ideal world."
The Angolan elite are now part of the global jet set, and have major investments in global cities like New York, London, Zurich, Hong Kong, and Dubai. Angolan oligarchs are assisted by and work closely with hundreds of thousands of expatriates, many from the former colonial power Portugal, who work in the private sector in Angola.
Soares de Oliveira said that the impact of the regime of President José Eduardo dos Santos was not entirely negative, noting, "Angola is at peace. That is a remarkable achievement." He credited the regime also with opening up to the world with "a remarkable degree of skill and agility," and said that there had been some infrastructure improvements in the country. Soares de Oliveira went on to conclude though that the costs have far outweighed the benefits. One of the costs is that Angola has become one of the most politicized economies in the world. "The scale of racketeering is spectacular," he said. Another cost of post-war reconstruction in Angola is its enormous dependence on oil revenues. "That is Angola's Achilles heel," said Soares de Oliveira noting that Angola is the second most dependent on oil exports (after Iraq) in the world.
The collapse in oil prices since 2014 has exposed Angola's vulnerability and increased the possibility of social turmoil in the country. More than 70 percent of Angolans are under the age of 25. They compare the situation in which they are living now not with how things were during the 41-year civil war, but instead with how they want – and expect – to be able to live today. These young people are much more resentful of the obscene wealth of Angolan oligarchs. Soares de Oliveira said that these challenges have increased the cost of exercising power in Angola but, he concluded that civil society and the official opposition are very weak, and that the regime "is likely to prevail."