The prospect of a Trump presidency does not worry Stephen Golub. His apprehension actually goes far deeper than that. In his own words, "it scares me to death." Golub, who is an international development expert and a visiting professor at the School of Public Policy at CEU, explained during a public lecture on May 24 that he was one of many people in the United States who "got it wrong" last year when they said that Trump would not win the Republican nomination.
According to Golub, when he launched his campaign, Trump himself did not think he was running for president. "Originally the campaign was just about the Trump brand," he explained. "It was a way to increase his profile, but then reality set in and he started to do well."
Golub identified many reasons for Trump's success, including: the fact that areas in the US that had relied on manufacturing were struggling as some jobs went overseas; the lingering effects of the 2007 financial crisis; rising income inequality in the country that has led to a decline in economic opportunities for most people; anger that Wall Street "got away with it" when no financial firm leaders went to jail as a result of that 2007 crisis; and Trump's strong nativism that appeals to fear or resentment of foreigners. These factors have made this an unusual presidential election campaign. "Trump is not the only non-traditional candidate this year," said Golub. He noted that Bernie Sanders, Ben Carson, and Ted Cruz were also non-traditional candidates.
Golub described Trump as a "brilliant showman" who has managed to dominate the news coverage. He explained that one of the reasons for this is that more people – both those who support and those who oppose him – watch news coverage of Donald Trump than of other candidates, and that this generates ad revenues for news companies.
Golub, who writes the "A Promised Land: America as a Developing Country" blog, said that some Americans are "less sophisticated than we often present ourselves to overseas audiences." He went on to explain that there are many "low information voters" in the country, and that Trump had capitalized on this.
Trump's relationship with the Republican Party is interesting. Although he has alienated Republican Party leaders, Golub said that Trump was in many ways a "continuation of the way that the Republican Party has been evolving for many years." He referred several times during his lecture to the book that Thomas Mann and Norman Ornstein wrote in 2012, entitled It's Even Worse Than it Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided With the New Politics of Extremism, in which they argue that the Republican Party is "ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition." Golub pointed out that Ornstein was one of the first – and very few – people to predict that Trump could get the Republican nomination.
As it becomes ever more certain that he will become the party's nominee, more Republicans are supporting Trump's candidacy. Some of them argue that if he were to become president, he would become more moderate. Golub disagrees. "He is a demagogue, and a con artist," with a "monstrous narcissistic ego." Golub said that if Trump were elected president, we should "expect more of the same."
Golub said that a Trump presidency could be "horrible for the world economy" and would lead to a "coarsening of US democracy." He pointed to Trump's attitude toward Muslims, his statements about the use of torture ("water boarding does not go far enough"), and his support for violence against those who protest at his rallies as some of the reasons why a Trump presidency scares him.
There are many factors that could work in Trump's favor during a presidential race against Hillary Clinton: she is not popular; the economic interests of the media that lead them to legitimize him; the possibility of a worsening economy; and Republican voter suppression efforts in many states. "I think he'll lose though," said Golub noting that Trump has aliented large and key demographic groups such as Hispanics and women. "I think the fear of a Trump presidency will galvanize people," he said. He noted also that the Clinton campaign was "way ahead of Trump in the 'get out the vote' campaign."
Even if Clinton wins the presidential election in the fall, the Trump phenomenon will have a lasting effect – both on the country and on the Republican Party. "The rise of Donald Trump is in many ways a reflection of the failure of the Republican Party," he said.
Watch the full lecture and a short interview with Golub below.