"There is no doubt that they are ready for change," said Dan Hellinger during a public lecture at the School of Public Policy at Central European University on May 4. He went on to the note that Cubans are also very eager to hold on to their health care system, their educational system, and the "strong sense of safety and trust among Cubans of all socioeconomic and ethnic backgrounds."
Hellinger, who is a professor of political science at Webster University, said that it was because of this feeling of solidarity that Cuba had weathered the period in the early 1990s when it lost between one-quarter and one-third of its GDP. "This type of shrinkage would have led to rioting in most countries," he said.
While the majority of Cubans are ready for the Castro brothers to step aside, Hellinger said that even those who "want them to go" are concerned about the future. He went on to say that they had good reason for concern, noting, "If you want great health care and education, you must generate economic growth." The process of achieving economic growth through a market opening will benefit some more than others. "There will be winners and losers," he said.
Hellinger described the long and complicated relationship between Cuba and the U.S. noting that the U.S. had dominated Cuba even after it gained independence. While acknowledging that Cuba had "human rights issues," Hellinger pointed out that the worst human rights abuses in Cuba took place at the U.S.-operated Guantanamo Bay detention camp. He said also that some of the practices that are criticized in Cuba, such as short-term arbitrary arrests, take place in the U.S. as well. "They are not right in the United States or in Cuba," he said. He said also that human rights abuses in Cuba receive "disproportionate attention" in the United States, highlighting that the largest recipient of aid from the United States, Colombia, had a much worse human rights record. There is a point, said Hellinger, when human rights abuses are so bad that sanctions are justified. "Cuba is not that place," he said.
The U.S.-Cuba relationship is changing – "not just in Cuba, but in Miami too," said Hellinger. Some Cuban immigrants, including some who swore they would never return, were going back to Cuba. They were motivated by several factors including an attachment to home, an eagerness to recover property they had abandoned when they left, and an interest in taking advantage of emerging economic opportunities. "It is absolutely clear that Miami's view is changing," he said. It is possible, according to Hellinger, that this change will cause the U.S. Congress to lift the embargo on Cuba.
According to Hellinger, the United States has three policy options: to "bring down" the Castro regime through political isolation; to seek the same outcome through trade and strengthening civil society; or to conclude that it's "not our job" to change the Cuban regime. He spoke strongly in favor of the third option.
The challenge in Cuba today is to "design a reform in which the market works for society, not the other way around." Hellinger said that Cuba had a number of advantages: the health and education levels in the country; the widespread and growing sense among the Cuban people that they have rights, including political rights; and the enormous intellectual talent that exists in Cuba. "I am optimistic about Cuba's future," concluded Hellinger.