Reflecting on what has happened in the Arab world since spring 2011, Dr. Mutayyam al O'ran observed, "the expectations of the Arab Spring have crashed on the stones of reality." George Soros Visting Practitioner Chair Mutayyam al O'ran made her remarks during a public lecture at the School of Public Policy at Central European University on April 15.
Al O'ran, who has been an advisor on political and international relations issues for the government of Jordan for ten years, said that the Arab Spring had not caused all of the problems that plague the region today, but that it had unleashed the divisions that had "been swept under the carpet in many countries." She went on to note that although the exact circumstances in each country varied, the root causes of the popular uprisings were the same: growing populations of mostly young people, widening income disparities ("the poor became poorer while the rich grew insanely richer"), economic austerity, and a desire for political reforms and better prospects for the future.
Al O'ran lamented some of the changes that have taken place in the Middle East during the past five years: the emboldening of religious extremists; "the fanning of sectarian tensions between the Sunni and Shia branches of Islam;" and "the culture of exclusivity and intolerance" that "sadly reigns" among both religious and secular groups. She went on to say that she thought there had been some hopeful signs too noting, "The Arab Spring showed that the Arab world is not immune to change." It showed also, she said, "that the Arab people wanted to recapture their states."
Despite the dire situation in many countries (war, instability, rising sectarianism, struggling economies, instances of barbaric terrorism, etc.), al O'ran said that she thought it was too soon to conclude – as some have done – that the Arab Spring was nothing but a series of lamentable failures. "I see the events that started in 2011 as a catalyst for long-term change. The final outcomes are not yet to be seen and may not be seen in our lifetimes," she said. Al O'ran pointed out that some changes take time noting, "having lots of NGOs is not the same thing as having a civil society."
In her prepared remarks and also in response to some of the many questions and comments that her presentation prompted, al O'ran noted that "the children of the Arab Spring are still developing their allegiances." Although clearly concerned about the rise of radical Islam in the Arab world, al O'ran noted that people become radicalized for many different reasons, including, in many documented cases, the absence of alternative choices.
In response to a question, al O'ran said that she and many others in the Arab world had been particularly disturbed – even shocked – by the way in which Syrian refugees were being treated in many western countries. She pointed out that there are now 1.6 million Syrian refugees living in Jordan, a country with limited resources that does not have enough water for its own population of over 7 million. "How is it," she asked, "that one million refugees is seen as threatening all of Europe?" She went on to say that assisting refugees was "a matter of humanity."