"What I'm interested in doing," explained Armenak Tokmajyan, "is to develop an analytical framework to enhance our ability to understand conflicts like the one in Syria." Tokmajyan, who is a research fellow at SPP's Center for Conflict, Negotiation and Recovery, explained the concept of conflict cycles. He described how conflicts go through phases: latent conflict, non-violent conflict, violent conflict, conflict mitigation, conflict settlement, peace agreement, peace, etc. He then applied this concept to explain the Syrian conflict on two levels: the top (state) level and the local (grassroots) level.
Tokmajyan noted that one of the weaknesses of this model is that it does not recognize the role of actors. Knowing who is fighting who, and on what level, is important to understanding any conflict, and to discovering the instances of "hidden" conflict transformation that exist at the local level. In Tokmajyan's understanding, during the violent phase of the conflict, actors fall into at least three categories: they are either on one of two opposing sides of the conflict, or are mediators or facilitators.
Tokmajyan argued that a more nuanced analysis of Syria – one that recognizes the multiplicity of conflicts that is taking place at the national, regional, and local levels – is essential to understanding the conflict. This type of analysis makes it possible to recognize, for example, that while a violent conflict is raging at the "top level," other conflicts may be winding down at the local level. This type of situation is quite common in Syria today.
Tokmajyan provided some examples to demonstrate his point. Barzeh (a suburb of Damascus), for example, is controlled by forces that oppose the Syrian government. It is surrounded by two villages, however, that are controlled by the government. After a protracted and unsuccessful effort to seize control of Barzeh, the government forces and the militias agreed to negotiate a ceasefire with rebel forces. A number of individuals played critical roles to bring the two sides together to resolve the conflict including community leaders and local notables. Despite the fact that conflicts continued to rage throughout Syria, the negotiations in Barzeh succeeded. The case of Barzeh is not unique according to Tokmajyan. "There are other cases of hidden and local level conflict transformation that this framework may help to discover," he said.
Tokmajyan concluded his presentation by observing that the analytical framework he is developing may be helpful in understanding other conflicts around the world as well.