“There is a consensus among empirical social scientists that there is no statistically significant relationship between income inequality and the likelihood of democratization. We wanted to reconsider that link,” explained SPP Associate Professor Michael Dorsch.
In a recently released working paper, Dorsch and his co-author Paul Maarek “demonstrate an empirically robust effect of inequality on the likelihood of democratization during recessionary periods, when autocratic regimes may be particularly weak (and a “revolutionary threat" may be amplified).” They analyzed a data set of autocratic countries from 1960 to 2012 to show that the increase in income inequality that often occurs during periods of economic recessions creates “windows of opportunity” for democratization. Dorsch explains that autocratic regimes have a greater incentive to extend suffrage to their citizens during these times as they seek ways to avoid destructive revolutions.
Dorsch says that he and Maarek found no statistically significant relationship though between income inequality and democratization during periods of growth. It is because these growth periods are much more common that so many social scientists have concluded that there is no relationship between income inequality and democratization at all.
Dorsch presented the findings from “Recessions, Inequality, and Democratization” at the 5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association on June 27 and at the University of Paris-Dauphine’s DIAL Development Conference on July 3.